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Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Florida State 10%Miami 90%
SharpTake projects Miami to win.
MiamiProjected winner
90%Win probability
Miami by 20.5Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Miami explosive plays
CLEAR EDGE
Miami offenseFlorida State defense
Miami creates big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams, while Florida State allows big-play value on successful plays less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Florida State.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.150Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the weakest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.186Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Miami pass game
EDGE
Miami offenseFlorida State defense
Miami gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Florida State allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Miami.
Passing Success Rate · 49.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 41.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Florida State disruption allowedMiami disruption created
Florida State avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle, while Miami creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Miami.
Havoc Rate allowed · 14.4%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Havoc Rate · 19.0%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Florida State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Miami position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 17, 2026 · 1:32 AM ET