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SharpTake projected Louisville at 77%. Louisville won.
ProjectedLouisville by 11.5
ActualLouisville by 8
Difference3.5 pts
Market spreadLouisville -14.5
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Syracuse +14.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Louisville 77%Syracuse 23%
SharpTake projects Louisville to win.
LouisvilleProjected winner
77%Win probability
Louisville by 11.5Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Louisville disruption vs Syracuse
CLEAR EDGE
Syracuse disruption allowedLouisville disruption created
Syracuse avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams, while Louisville creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Louisville.
Havoc Rate allowed · 18.8%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 17.4%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Syracuse staying on schedule
EDGE
Syracuse offenseLouisville defense
Syracuse gains enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Louisville allows enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Louisville.
Offensive Success Rate · 39.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 36.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Louisville run game
EDGE
Louisville offenseSyracuse defense
Louisville gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Syracuse allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Louisville.
Rushing Success Rate · 49.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 45.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Louisville position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Syracuse position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 17, 2026 · 1:32 AM ET