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SharpTake projected Duke at 68%. North Carolina won.
ProjectedDuke by 7.0
ActualNorth Carolina by 4
Difference11.0 pts
Market spreadDuke -3
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Duke -3
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
North Carolina 32%Duke 68%
SharpTake projects Duke to win.
DukeProjected winner
68%Win probability
Duke by 7.0Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
North Carolina pass game
EDGE
North Carolina offenseDuke defense
North Carolina gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Duke allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors North Carolina.
Passing Success Rate · 40.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 46.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
North Carolina gains enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Duke allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 39.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 43.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Run game
NO EDGE
North Carolina offenseDuke defense
North Carolina gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Duke allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Rushing Success Rate · 38.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 42.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
North Carolina position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Duke position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 17, 2026 · 1:32 AM ET