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Sat, Oct. 17 · 12:00 PM ET · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
Pittsburgh21
Boston College27
MISSED
SharpTake projected Pittsburgh at 80%. Boston College won.
ProjectedPittsburgh by 13.0
ActualBoston College by 6
Difference19.0 pts
Market spreadPittsburgh -6.25
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Pittsburgh -6.25
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Pittsburgh 80%Boston College 20%
SharpTake projects Pittsburgh to win.
PittsburghProjected winner
80%Win probability
Pittsburgh by 13.0Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Pittsburgh explosive plays
CLEAR EDGE
Pittsburgh offenseBoston College defense
Pittsburgh creates big-play value on successful plays more often than most FBS teams, while Boston College allows big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Pittsburgh.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.332Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Better than most FBS teams
Explosiveness allowed · 1.362Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Boston College staying on schedule
EDGE
Boston College offensePittsburgh defense
Boston College gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Pittsburgh allows enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Pittsburgh.
Offensive Success Rate · 43.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 35.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Boston College run game
EDGE
Boston College offensePittsburgh defense
Boston College gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Pittsburgh allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Pittsburgh.
Rushing Success Rate · 44.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 34.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Pittsburgh position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Boston College position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 17, 2026 · 1:32 AM ET