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Sat, Oct. 17 · 12:00 PM ET · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Virginia13
SMU23
CALLED
SharpTake projected SMU at 65%. SMU won.
ProjectedSMU by 6.0
ActualSMU by 10
Difference4.0 pts
Market spreadSMU -10
Vs spreadPUSHSharpTake Pick: Virginia +10
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Virginia 35%SMU 65%
SharpTake projects SMU to win.
SMUProjected winner
65%Win probability
SMU by 6.0Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
SMU explosive plays
EDGE
SMU offenseVirginia defense
SMU creates big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams, while Virginia allows big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors SMU.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.361Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the strongest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.202Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
SMU disruption vs Virginia
EDGE
Virginia disruption allowedSMU disruption created
Virginia avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle, while SMU creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors SMU.
Havoc Rate allowed · 13.4%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Havoc Rate · 19.1%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Virginia finishing drives
EDGE
Virginia offenseSMU defense
Virginia scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line at a rate near the FBS middle, while SMU allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors SMU.
Points per scoring opportunity · 3.56 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Near the FBS middle
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 2.79 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
Virginia position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.SMU position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 17, 2026 · 1:32 AM ET