SharpTake

FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 7

Wake ForestatCalifornia

Sat, Oct. 17 · 10:30 PM ET · California Memorial Stadium

Wake Forest41
California7
CALLED

SharpTake projected Wake Forest at 79%. Wake Forest won.

ProjectedWake Forest by 12.5
ActualWake Forest by 34
Difference21.5 pts
Market spreadWake Forest -10
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Wake Forest -10

Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised

SharpTake projects Wake Forest to win.

Wake ForestProjected winner
79%Win probability
Wake Forest by 12.5Projected margin

On-field context

Matchup breakdown

These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.

California staying on schedule

EDGE
California offenseWake Forest defense

California gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Wake Forest allows enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Wake Forest.

Offensive Success Rate · 40.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 35.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results

Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed

California run game

EDGE
California offenseWake Forest defense

California gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Wake Forest allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Wake Forest.

Rushing Success Rate · 37.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 38.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams

Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed

California pass game

EDGE
California offenseWake Forest defense

California gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Wake Forest allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Wake Forest.

Passing Success Rate · 43.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 32.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results

Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed

Explore

Go deeper

Team reads

Wake Forest team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed. California team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed. Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.

Position rooms

Wake Forest position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
California position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 17, 2026 · 1:32 AM ET

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