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Sat, Oct. 24 · 12:00 PM ET · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
California20
SMU59
CALLED
SharpTake projected SMU at 84%. SMU won.
ProjectedSMU by 15.5
ActualSMU by 39
Difference23.5 pts
Market spreadSMU -18.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: California +18.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
California 16%SMU 84%
SharpTake projects SMU to win.
SMUProjected winner
84%Win probability
SMU by 15.5Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
California run game
EDGE
California offenseSMU defense
California gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while SMU allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors SMU.
Rushing Success Rate · 37.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 38.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
California disruption allowedSMU disruption created
California avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle, while SMU creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors SMU.
Havoc Rate allowed · 16.6%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Havoc Rate · 19.1%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
California finishing drives
EDGE
California offenseSMU defense
California scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line at a rate near the FBS middle, while SMU allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors SMU.
Points per scoring opportunity · 3.70 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Near the FBS middle
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 2.79 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
California position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.SMU position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 24, 2026 · 7:58 AM ET