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Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Pittsburgh 12%Miami 88%
SharpTake projects Miami to win.
MiamiProjected winner
88%Win probability
Miami by 19.0Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Miami disruption vs Pittsburgh
CLEAR EDGE
Pittsburgh disruption allowedMiami disruption created
Pittsburgh avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles less often than most FBS teams, while Miami creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Miami.
Havoc Rate allowed · 18.5%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Havoc Rate · 19.0%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Pittsburgh staying on schedule
EDGE
Pittsburgh offenseMiami defense
Pittsburgh gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Miami allows enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Miami.
Offensive Success Rate · 40.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 35.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Pittsburgh run game
EDGE
Pittsburgh offenseMiami defense
Pittsburgh gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Miami allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Miami.
Rushing Success Rate · 41.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 35.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Pittsburgh position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Miami position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 24, 2026 · 7:58 AM ET