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SharpTake projected North Carolina at 72%. Syracuse won.
ProjectedNorth Carolina by 8.5
ActualSyracuse by 1
Difference9.5 pts
Market spreadNorth Carolina -8.75
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Syracuse +8.75
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Syracuse 28%North Carolina 72%
SharpTake projects North Carolina to win.
North CarolinaProjected winner
72%Win probability
North Carolina by 8.5Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
North Carolina disruption vs Syracuse
EDGE
Syracuse disruption allowedNorth Carolina disruption created
Syracuse avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams, while North Carolina creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors North Carolina.
Havoc Rate allowed · 18.8%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 14.8%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Syracuse finishing drives
EDGE
Syracuse offenseNorth Carolina defense
Syracuse scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far less often than most FBS teams, while North Carolina allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors North Carolina.
Points per scoring opportunity · 2.98 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Among the weakest FBS results
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 3.58 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
Staying on schedule
NO EDGE
Syracuse offenseNorth Carolina defense
Syracuse gains enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while North Carolina allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 39.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 41.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Syracuse position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.North Carolina position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 24, 2026 · 7:58 AM ET