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Sat, Oct. 31 · 12:00 PM ET · Carter-Finley Stadium
California 20%NC State 80%
SharpTake projects NC State to win.
NC StateProjected winner
80%Win probability
NC State by 13.0Projected margin
SharpTakeNC State by 13.0
Market SpreadNC State -7
SharpTake is 6.0 points higher on NC State.
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
California explosive plays
EDGE
California offenseNC State defense
California creates big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle, while NC State allows big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors California.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.240Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Near the FBS middle
Explosiveness allowed · 1.385Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
NC State finishing drives
EDGE
NC State offenseCalifornia defense
NC State scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far more often than most FBS teams, while California allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors NC State.
Points per scoring opportunity · 4.69 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Among the strongest FBS results
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 3.74 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
Run game
NO EDGE
NC State offenseCalifornia defense
NC State gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while California allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Rushing Success Rate · 42.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 46.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
California position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.NC State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 28, 2026 · 2:49 AM ET