SharpTake

Game forecast · REGULAR week 9

StanfordatLouisville

Sat, Oct. 31 · 3:15 PM ET · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium

SharpTake projects Louisville to win.

LouisvilleProjected winner
93%Win probability
Louisville by 24.5Projected margin
SharpTakeLouisville by 24.5
Market SpreadLouisville -22.5

SharpTake is 2.0 points higher on Louisville.

On-field context

Matchup breakdown

These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.

Stanford staying on schedule

CLEAR EDGE
Stanford offenseLouisville defense

Stanford gains enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Louisville allows enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Louisville.

Offensive Success Rate · 36.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 36.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams

Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed

Stanford run game

CLEAR EDGE
Stanford offenseLouisville defense

Stanford gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Louisville allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Louisville.

Rushing Success Rate · 37.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 37.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams

Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed

Stanford pass game

EDGE
Stanford offenseLouisville defense

Stanford gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Louisville allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Louisville.

Passing Success Rate · 36.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Passing Success Rate allowed · 36.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams

Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed

Explore

Go deeper

Team reads

Stanford team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed. Louisville team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed. Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.

Position rooms

Stanford position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Louisville position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 28, 2026 · 2:49 AM ET

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