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Sat, Oct. 31 · 3:45 PM ET · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
Virginia 21%Wake Forest 79%
SharpTake projects Wake Forest to win.
Wake ForestProjected winner
79%Win probability
Wake Forest by 12.5Projected margin
SharpTakeWake Forest by 12.5
Market SpreadWake Forest -12.5
SharpTake matches the market.
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Wake Forest staying on schedule
EDGE
Wake Forest offenseVirginia defense
Wake Forest gains enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Virginia allows enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Virginia.
Offensive Success Rate · 38.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 37.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Wake Forest pass game
EDGE
Wake Forest offenseVirginia defense
Wake Forest gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Virginia allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Virginia.
Passing Success Rate · 36.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Passing Success Rate allowed · 35.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Wake Forest creates big-play value on successful plays far more often than most FBS teams, while Virginia allows big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Wake Forest.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.478Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the strongest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.202Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Virginia position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Wake Forest position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 28, 2026 · 2:49 AM ET