Overall team quality
Strong Toledo advantage
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Toledo
Toledo's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Toledo. Toledo also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency, while Michigan State's record from last season pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Strong Toledo advantage
Last season's results
Michigan State offset
Passing efficiency
Michigan State offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Toledo disruption vs Michigan State
CLEAR EDGEMichigan State disruption allowedToledo disruption created
Michigan State avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles less often than most FBS teams, while Toledo creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Toledo.
Havoc Rate allowed · 18.0%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Havoc Rate · 20.2%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Michigan State staying on schedule
EDGEMichigan State offenseToledo defense
Michigan State gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Toledo allows enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Toledo.
Offensive Success Rate · 42.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 33.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Michigan State pass game
EDGEMichigan State offenseToledo defense
Michigan State gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Toledo allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Toledo.
Passing Success Rate · 42.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 28.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Toledo team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Michigan State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
- Neither team has completed a game this season; the forecast rests on prior-season evidence.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.