Overall team quality
Strong Penn State advantage
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Penn State
Penn State's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Penn State. Penn State also has the edge in big-play ability and down-to-down efficiency, while Marshall's record from last season pushes the other way.
Big-play ability
Penn State advantage
Down-to-down efficiency
Slight Penn State advantage
Last season's results
Marshall offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Marshall explosive plays
CLEAR EDGEMarshall offensePenn State defense
Marshall creates big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams, while Penn State allows big-play value on successful plays less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Penn State.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.134Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the weakest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.185Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Staying on schedule
NO EDGEPenn State offenseMarshall defense
Penn State gains enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Marshall allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 46.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 38.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Run game
NO EDGEPenn State offenseMarshall defense
Penn State gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Marshall allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Rushing Success Rate · 47.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 36.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Marshall team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Penn State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
- Neither team has completed a game this season; the forecast rests on prior-season evidence.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.