Overall team quality
Strong Notre Dame advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 1
WisconsinvsNotre Dame
Wisconsin13
Notre Dame41
CALLED
SharpTake projected Notre Dame at 95%. Notre Dame won.
ProjectedNotre Dame by 31.5
ActualNotre Dame by 28
Difference3.5 pts
Market spreadNotre Dame -20.75
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Notre Dame -20.75
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Wisconsin 5%Notre Dame 95%
SharpTake projects Notre Dame to win.
Notre DameProjected winner
95%Win probability
Notre Dame by 31.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Notre Dame
Notre Dame's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Notre Dame. Notre Dame also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and running-game efficiency, while Wisconsin's record from last season pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Strong Notre Dame advantage
Last season's results
Wisconsin offset
Running-game efficiency
Notre Dame advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Wisconsin finishing drives
CLEAR EDGEWisconsin offenseNotre Dame defense
Wisconsin scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far less often than most FBS teams, while Notre Dame allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Notre Dame.
Points per scoring opportunity · 2.28 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Among the weakest FBS results
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 2.58 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
Notre Dame staying on schedule
CLEAR EDGENotre Dame offenseWisconsin defense
Notre Dame gains enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Wisconsin allows enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Notre Dame.
Offensive Success Rate · 46.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 45.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Notre Dame pass game
CLEAR EDGENotre Dame offenseWisconsin defense
Notre Dame gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Wisconsin allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Notre Dame.
Passing Success Rate · 49.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 45.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Wisconsin team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Notre Dame team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
- Neither team has completed a game this season; the forecast rests on prior-season evidence.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.