SharpTake

FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 2

LouisianaatUSC

Sat, Sep. 12 · 11:00 PM ET · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum

Louisiana30
USC49
CALLED

SharpTake projected USC at 86%. USC won.

ProjectedUSC by 18.0
ActualUSC by 19
Difference1.0 pts
Market spreadUSC -30.75
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Louisiana +30.75

Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised

SharpTake projects USC to win.

USCProjected winner
86%Win probability
USC by 18.0Projected margin

Why SharpTake leans

Why SharpTake leans USC

USC's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors USC. USC also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency, while Louisiana's record from last season pushes the other way.

Overall team quality

Strong USC advantage

Down-to-down efficiency

Strong USC advantage

Last season's results

Louisiana offset

Passing efficiency

Louisiana offset

On-field context

Matchup breakdown

These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.

USC staying on schedule

CLEAR EDGE
USC offenseLouisiana defense

USC gains enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Louisiana allows enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors USC.

Offensive Success Rate · 49.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 46.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results

Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed

USC pass game

CLEAR EDGE
USC offenseLouisiana defense

USC gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Louisiana allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors USC.

Passing Success Rate · 52.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 44.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams

Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed

USC run game

EDGE
USC offenseLouisiana defense

USC gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Louisiana allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors USC.

Rushing Success Rate · 46.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 48.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results

Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed

Explore

Go deeper

Team reads

Louisiana team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed. USC team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed. Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.

Position rooms

Louisiana position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
USC position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Sep. 12, 2026 · 11:00 PM ET

← Back to forecast board Recent results