Overall team quality
Strong Notre Dame advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 3
Michigan StateatNotre Dame
Michigan State10
Notre Dame27
CALLED
SharpTake projected Notre Dame at 94%. Notre Dame won.
ProjectedNotre Dame by 27.0
ActualNotre Dame by 17
Difference10.0 pts
Market spreadNotre Dame -28.75
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Michigan State +28.75
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Michigan State 6%Notre Dame 94%
SharpTake projects Notre Dame to win.
Notre DameProjected winner
94%Win probability
Notre Dame by 27.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Notre Dame
Notre Dame's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Notre Dame. Notre Dame also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and current season's scoring performance, while Michigan State's record from last season pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Notre Dame advantage
Last season's results
Michigan State offset
Current season's scoring performance
Notre Dame advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Notre Dame staying on schedule
EDGENotre Dame offenseMichigan State defense
Notre Dame gains enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Michigan State allows enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Notre Dame.
Offensive Success Rate · 46.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 44.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Notre Dame run game
EDGENotre Dame offenseMichigan State defense
Notre Dame gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Michigan State allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Notre Dame.
Rushing Success Rate · 44.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 47.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Notre Dame pass game
EDGENotre Dame offenseMichigan State defense
Notre Dame gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Michigan State allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Notre Dame.
Passing Success Rate · 49.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 43.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Michigan State team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Notre Dame team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.