Overall team quality
Strong Wisconsin advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 3
Eastern MichiganatWisconsin
Eastern Michigan10
Wisconsin54
CALLED
SharpTake projected Wisconsin at 78%. Wisconsin won.
ProjectedWisconsin by 12.5
ActualWisconsin by 44
Difference31.5 pts
Market spreadWisconsin -23.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Eastern Michigan +23.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Eastern Michigan 22%Wisconsin 78%
SharpTake projects Wisconsin to win.
WisconsinProjected winner
78%Win probability
Wisconsin by 12.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Wisconsin
Wisconsin's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Wisconsin. Wisconsin also has the edge in big-play ability, while Eastern Michigan's current season's results pushes the other way.
Big-play ability
Slight Wisconsin advantage
Current season's results
Eastern Michigan offset
Down-to-down efficiency
Eastern Michigan offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Eastern Michigan staying on schedule
EDGEEastern Michigan offenseWisconsin defense
Eastern Michigan gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Wisconsin allows enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Eastern Michigan.
Offensive Success Rate · 43.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 45.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Wisconsin run game
EDGEWisconsin offenseEastern Michigan defense
Wisconsin gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Eastern Michigan allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Eastern Michigan.
Rushing Success Rate · 36.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 44.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Eastern Michigan explosive plays
EDGEEastern Michigan offenseWisconsin defense
Eastern Michigan creates big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle, while Wisconsin allows big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Wisconsin.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.237Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Near the FBS middle
Explosiveness allowed · 1.140Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Eastern Michigan team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Wisconsin team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.