Overall team quality
Strong Indiana advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 4
NorthwesternatIndiana
Northwestern23
Indiana29
CALLED
SharpTake projected Indiana at 94%. Indiana won.
ProjectedIndiana by 27.0
ActualIndiana by 6
Difference21.0 pts
Market spreadIndiana -20.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Indiana -20.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Northwestern 6%Indiana 94%
SharpTake projects Indiana to win.
IndianaProjected winner
94%Win probability
Indiana by 27.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Indiana
Indiana's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Indiana. Indiana also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and running-game efficiency, while Northwestern's record from last season pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Strong Indiana advantage
Last season's results
Northwestern offset
Running-game efficiency
Indiana advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Indiana staying on schedule
CLEAR EDGEIndiana offenseNorthwestern defense
Indiana gains enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Northwestern allows enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Indiana.
Offensive Success Rate · 51.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 45.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Indiana run game
CLEAR EDGEIndiana offenseNorthwestern defense
Indiana gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Northwestern allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Indiana.
Rushing Success Rate · 48.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 46.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Indiana pass game
CLEAR EDGEIndiana offenseNorthwestern defense
Indiana gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Northwestern allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Indiana.
Passing Success Rate · 56.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 44.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Northwestern team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Indiana team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.