Overall team quality
UCLA offset
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 4
UCLAatMaryland
UCLA54
Maryland3
MISSED
SharpTake projected Maryland at 55%. UCLA won.
ProjectedMaryland by 2.0
ActualUCLA by 51
Difference53.0 pts
Market spreadUCLA -2.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Maryland +2.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
UCLA 45%Maryland 55%
SharpTake projects Maryland to win.
MarylandProjected winner
55%Win probability
Maryland by 2.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Maryland
Maryland's current season's results is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Maryland. Maryland also has the edge in current season's scoring performance, while UCLA's overall quality pushes the other way.
Current season's results
Maryland advantage
Current season's scoring performance
Slight Maryland advantage
Last season's results
UCLA offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Maryland pass game
EDGEMaryland offenseUCLA defense
Maryland gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while UCLA allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Maryland.
Passing Success Rate · 40.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 47.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Maryland explosive plays
EDGEMaryland offenseUCLA defense
Maryland creates big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle, while UCLA allows big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors UCLA.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.286Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Near the FBS middle
Explosiveness allowed · 1.138Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
UCLA disruption vs Maryland
EDGEMaryland disruption allowedUCLA disruption created
Maryland avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle, while UCLA creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Maryland.
Havoc Rate allowed · 14.3%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Havoc Rate · 12.0%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
UCLA team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Maryland team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.