Overall team quality
Iowa advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 4
IowaatMichigan
Iowa20
Michigan19
CALLED
SharpTake projected Iowa at 57%. Iowa won.
ProjectedIowa by 3.0
ActualIowa by 1
Difference2.0 pts
Market spreadMichigan -5.25
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Iowa +5.25
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Iowa 57%Michigan 43%
SharpTake projects Iowa to win.
IowaProjected winner
57%Win probability
Iowa by 3.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Iowa
Iowa's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Iowa. Iowa also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and current season's scoring performance.
Down-to-down efficiency
Iowa advantage
Current season's scoring performance
Iowa advantage
Recent scoring performance
Slight Iowa advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Michigan explosive plays
CLEAR EDGEMichigan offenseIowa defense
Michigan creates big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams, while Iowa allows big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Iowa.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.128Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the weakest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.076Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Michigan run game
EDGEMichigan offenseIowa defense
Michigan gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Iowa allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Michigan.
Rushing Success Rate · 50.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 41.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Iowa disruption vs Michigan
EDGEMichigan disruption allowedIowa disruption created
Michigan avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams, while Iowa creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Michigan.
Havoc Rate allowed · 12.1%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 16.9%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Iowa team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Michigan team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.