Overall team quality
Strong Penn State advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 4
WisconsinatPenn State
Wisconsin24
Penn State20
MISSED
SharpTake projected Penn State at 87%. Wisconsin won.
ProjectedPenn State by 18.5
ActualWisconsin by 4
Difference22.5 pts
Market spreadPenn State -10
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Penn State -10
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Wisconsin 13%Penn State 87%
SharpTake projects Penn State to win.
Penn StateProjected winner
87%Win probability
Penn State by 18.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Penn State
Penn State's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Penn State. Penn State also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency, while Wisconsin's current season's results pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Penn State advantage
Current season's results
Wisconsin offset
Last season's results
Wisconsin offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Penn State staying on schedule
CLEAR EDGEPenn State offenseWisconsin defense
Penn State gains enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Wisconsin allows enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Penn State.
Offensive Success Rate · 46.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 45.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Penn State explosive plays
CLEAR EDGEPenn State offenseWisconsin defense
Penn State creates big-play value on successful plays less often than most FBS teams, while Wisconsin allows big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Wisconsin.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.187Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Worse than most FBS teams
Explosiveness allowed · 1.140Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Wisconsin run game
EDGEWisconsin offensePenn State defense
Wisconsin gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Penn State allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Penn State.
Rushing Success Rate · 36.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 44.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Wisconsin team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Penn State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.