SharpTake

FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 4

OregonatUSC

Sat, Sep. 26 · 7:30 PM ET · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum

Oregon41
USC27
CALLED

SharpTake projected Oregon at 60%. Oregon won.

ProjectedOregon by 4.5
ActualOregon by 14
Difference9.5 pts
Market spreadOregon -3.75
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Oregon -3.75

Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised

SharpTake projects Oregon to win.

OregonProjected winner
60%Win probability
Oregon by 4.5Projected margin

Why SharpTake leans

Why SharpTake leans Oregon

Oregon's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Oregon. Oregon also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and current season's results, while USC's record from last season pushes the other way.

Overall team quality

Oregon advantage

Down-to-down efficiency

Oregon advantage

Current season's results

Oregon advantage

Last season's results

USC offset

On-field context

Matchup breakdown

These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.

Oregon run game

CLEAR EDGE
Oregon offenseUSC defense

Oregon gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while USC allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Oregon.

Rushing Success Rate · 48.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 47.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results

Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed

Oregon staying on schedule

EDGE
Oregon offenseUSC defense

Oregon gains enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while USC allows enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Oregon.

Offensive Success Rate · 47.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 45.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams

Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed

Oregon pass game

EDGE
Oregon offenseUSC defense

Oregon gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while USC allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Oregon.

Passing Success Rate · 47.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 42.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle

Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed

Explore

Go deeper

Team reads

Oregon team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed. USC team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed. Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.

Position rooms

Oregon position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
USC position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Sep. 26, 2026 · 7:30 PM ET

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