Overall team quality
Strong Washington advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 4
MinnesotaatWashington
Minnesota27
Washington24
MISSED
SharpTake projected Washington at 77%. Minnesota won.
ProjectedWashington by 11.5
ActualMinnesota by 3
Difference14.5 pts
Market spreadWashington -10.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Washington -10.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Minnesota 23%Washington 77%
SharpTake projects Washington to win.
WashingtonProjected winner
77%Win probability
Washington by 11.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Washington
Washington's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Washington. Washington also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and running-game efficiency, while Minnesota's current season's results pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Washington advantage
Current season's results
Minnesota offset
Running-game efficiency
Slight Washington advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Washington staying on schedule
EDGEWashington offenseMinnesota defense
Washington gains enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Minnesota allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Washington.
Offensive Success Rate · 48.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 42.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Washington run game
EDGEWashington offenseMinnesota defense
Washington gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Minnesota allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Washington.
Rushing Success Rate · 49.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 41.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Washington pass game
EDGEWashington offenseMinnesota defense
Washington gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Minnesota allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Washington.
Passing Success Rate · 50.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 43.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Minnesota team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Washington team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.