Overall team quality
Strong Ohio State advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 5
Ohio StateatIowa
Ohio State31
Iowa14
CALLED
SharpTake projected Ohio State at 66%. Ohio State won.
ProjectedOhio State by 6.5
ActualOhio State by 17
Difference10.5 pts
Market spreadOhio State -14.25
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Iowa +14.25
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Ohio State 66%Iowa 34%
SharpTake projects Ohio State to win.
Ohio StateProjected winner
66%Win probability
Ohio State by 6.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Ohio State
Ohio State's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Ohio State. Ohio State also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and current season's results, while Iowa's record from last season pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Ohio State advantage
Last season's results
Iowa offset
Current season's results
Ohio State advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Ohio State explosive plays
CLEAR EDGEOhio State offenseIowa defense
Ohio State creates big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams, while Iowa allows big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Iowa.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.145Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the weakest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.076Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Ohio State staying on schedule
EDGEOhio State offenseIowa defense
Ohio State gains enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Iowa allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Ohio State.
Offensive Success Rate · 53.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 38.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Iowa disruption vs Ohio State
EDGEOhio State disruption allowedIowa disruption created
Ohio State avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams, while Iowa creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Ohio State.
Havoc Rate allowed · 11.2%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 16.9%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Ohio State team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Iowa team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.