Overall team quality
Strong Michigan advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 5
MichiganatMinnesota
Michigan14
Minnesota20
MISSED
SharpTake projected Michigan at 62%. Minnesota won.
ProjectedMichigan by 4.5
ActualMinnesota by 6
Difference10.5 pts
Market spreadMichigan -6
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Minnesota +6
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Michigan 62%Minnesota 38%
SharpTake projects Michigan to win.
MichiganProjected winner
62%Win probability
Michigan by 4.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Michigan
Michigan's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Michigan. Michigan also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and running-game efficiency, while Minnesota's record from last season pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Michigan advantage
Running-game efficiency
Slight Michigan advantage
Last season's results
Minnesota offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Minnesota explosive plays
CLEAR EDGEMinnesota offenseMichigan defense
Minnesota creates big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams, while Michigan allows big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Michigan.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.144Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the weakest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.120Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Michigan run game
EDGEMichigan offenseMinnesota defense
Michigan gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Minnesota allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Michigan.
Rushing Success Rate · 50.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 41.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Staying on schedule
NO EDGEMichigan offenseMinnesota defense
Michigan gains enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Minnesota allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Offensive Success Rate · 45.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 42.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Michigan team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Minnesota team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.