Overall team quality
Strong Nebraska advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 5
MarylandatNebraska
Maryland23
Nebraska48
CALLED
SharpTake projected Nebraska at 85%. Nebraska won.
ProjectedNebraska by 16.0
ActualNebraska by 25
Difference9.0 pts
Market spreadNebraska -15
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Nebraska -15
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Maryland 15%Nebraska 85%
SharpTake projects Nebraska to win.
NebraskaProjected winner
85%Win probability
Nebraska by 16.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Nebraska
Nebraska's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Nebraska. Nebraska also has the edge in recent scoring performance and down-to-down efficiency, while Maryland's current season's results pushes the other way.
Current season's results
Maryland offset
Recent scoring performance
Nebraska advantage
Down-to-down efficiency
Nebraska advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Nebraska explosive plays
EDGENebraska offenseMaryland defense
Nebraska creates big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams, while Maryland allows big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Maryland.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.108Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the weakest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.202Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Maryland disruption vs Nebraska
EDGENebraska disruption allowedMaryland disruption created
Nebraska avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles more often than most FBS teams, while Maryland creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Nebraska.
Havoc Rate allowed · 12.9%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Better than most FBS teams
Defensive Havoc Rate · 14.1%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Maryland finishing drives
EDGEMaryland offenseNebraska defense
Maryland scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line at a rate near the FBS middle, while Nebraska allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Maryland.
Points per scoring opportunity · 3.39 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Near the FBS middle
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 4.37 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Maryland team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Nebraska team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.