Overall team quality
Strong Indiana advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 5
IndianaatRutgers
Indiana47
Rutgers15
CALLED
SharpTake projected Indiana at 92%. Indiana won.
ProjectedIndiana by 22.5
ActualIndiana by 32
Difference9.5 pts
Market spreadIndiana -24.25
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Rutgers +24.25
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Indiana 92%Rutgers 8%
SharpTake projects Indiana to win.
IndianaProjected winner
92%Win probability
Indiana by 22.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Indiana
Indiana's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Indiana. Indiana also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency, while Rutgers's record from last season pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Strong Indiana advantage
Last season's results
Rutgers offset
Current season's results
Rutgers offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Indiana staying on schedule
CLEAR EDGEIndiana offenseRutgers defense
Indiana gains enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Rutgers allows enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Indiana.
Offensive Success Rate · 51.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 47.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Indiana run game
CLEAR EDGEIndiana offenseRutgers defense
Indiana gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Rutgers allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Indiana.
Rushing Success Rate · 48.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 47.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Indiana pass game
CLEAR EDGEIndiana offenseRutgers defense
Indiana gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Rutgers allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Indiana.
Passing Success Rate · 56.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 47.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Indiana team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Rutgers team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.