SharpTake

FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 5

WashingtonatUSC

Sat, Oct. 3 · 7:30 PM ET · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum

Washington21
USC25
CALLED

SharpTake projected USC at 57%. USC won.

ProjectedUSC by 2.5
ActualUSC by 4
Difference1.5 pts
Market spreadUSC -8.25
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Washington +8.25

Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised

SharpTake projects USC to win.

USCProjected winner
57%Win probability
USC by 2.5Projected margin

Why SharpTake leans

Why SharpTake leans USC

SharpTake leans USC, with the football edges split between the two teams.

Running-game efficiency

Washington offset

On-field context

Matchup breakdown

These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.

Washington run game

CLEAR EDGE
Washington offenseUSC defense

Washington gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while USC allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Washington.

Rushing Success Rate · 49.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 47.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results

Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed

Washington staying on schedule

CLEAR EDGE
Washington offenseUSC defense

Washington gains enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while USC allows enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Washington.

Offensive Success Rate · 48.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 45.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams

Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed

Washington pass game

EDGE
Washington offenseUSC defense

Washington gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while USC allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Washington.

Passing Success Rate · 50.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 42.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle

Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed

Explore

Go deeper

Team reads

Washington team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed. USC team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed. Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.

Position rooms

Washington position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
USC position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 3, 2026 · 7:30 PM ET

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