Overall team quality
Wisconsin advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 5
Michigan StateatWisconsin
Michigan State3
Wisconsin31
CALLED
SharpTake projected Wisconsin at 80%. Wisconsin won.
ProjectedWisconsin by 13.0
ActualWisconsin by 28
Difference15.0 pts
Market spreadWisconsin -8.75
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Wisconsin -8.75
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Michigan State 20%Wisconsin 80%
SharpTake projects Wisconsin to win.
WisconsinProjected winner
80%Win probability
Wisconsin by 13.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Wisconsin
Wisconsin's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Wisconsin. Wisconsin also has the edge in recent scoring performance and big-play ability, while Michigan State's current season's results pushes the other way.
Recent scoring performance
Wisconsin advantage
Big-play ability
Wisconsin advantage
Current season's results
Michigan State offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Michigan State staying on schedule
EDGEMichigan State offenseWisconsin defense
Michigan State gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Wisconsin allows enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Michigan State.
Offensive Success Rate · 42.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 45.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Wisconsin explosive plays
EDGEWisconsin offenseMichigan State defense
Wisconsin creates big-play value on successful plays less often than most FBS teams, while Michigan State allows big-play value on successful plays less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Michigan State.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.197Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Worse than most FBS teams
Explosiveness allowed · 1.185Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Wisconsin finishing drives
EDGEWisconsin offenseMichigan State defense
Wisconsin scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far less often than most FBS teams, while Michigan State allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Michigan State.
Points per scoring opportunity · 2.28 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Among the weakest FBS results
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 3.91 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Michigan State team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Wisconsin team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.