Overall team quality
Strong Illinois advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 6
IllinoisatMichigan State
Illinois38
Michigan State37
CALLED
SharpTake projected Illinois at 64%. Illinois won.
ProjectedIllinois by 6.0
ActualIllinois by 1
Difference5.0 pts
Market spreadIllinois -2.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Illinois -2.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Illinois 64%Michigan State 36%
SharpTake projects Illinois to win.
IllinoisProjected winner
64%Win probability
Illinois by 6.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Illinois
Illinois's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Illinois. Illinois also has the edge in big-play ability and recent scoring performance, while Michigan State's record from last season pushes the other way.
Last season's results
Michigan State offset
Big-play ability
Illinois advantage
Recent scoring performance
Illinois advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Illinois staying on schedule
CLEAR EDGEIllinois offenseMichigan State defense
Illinois gains enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Michigan State allows enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Illinois.
Offensive Success Rate · 47.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 44.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Illinois run game
CLEAR EDGEIllinois offenseMichigan State defense
Illinois gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Michigan State allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Illinois.
Rushing Success Rate · 47.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 47.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Michigan State pass game
EDGEMichigan State offenseIllinois defense
Michigan State gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Illinois allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Michigan State.
Passing Success Rate · 42.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 48.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Illinois team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Michigan State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.