Overall team quality
Strong Indiana advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 6
IndianaatNebraska
Indiana20
Nebraska17
CALLED
SharpTake projected Indiana at 78%. Indiana won.
ProjectedIndiana by 12.5
ActualIndiana by 3
Difference9.5 pts
Market spreadIndiana -8.75
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Indiana -8.75
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Indiana 78%Nebraska 22%
SharpTake projects Indiana to win.
IndianaProjected winner
78%Win probability
Indiana by 12.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Indiana
Indiana's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Indiana. Indiana also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and running-game efficiency, while Nebraska's record from last season pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Indiana advantage
Last season's results
Nebraska offset
Running-game efficiency
Indiana advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Indiana finishing drives
CLEAR EDGEIndiana offenseNebraska defense
Indiana scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far more often than most FBS teams, while Nebraska allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Indiana.
Points per scoring opportunity · 5.13 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Among the strongest FBS results
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 4.37 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
Indiana run game
CLEAR EDGEIndiana offenseNebraska defense
Indiana gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Nebraska allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Indiana.
Rushing Success Rate · 48.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 46.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Nebraska disruption vs Indiana
CLEAR EDGEIndiana disruption allowedNebraska disruption created
Indiana avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams, while Nebraska creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Indiana.
Havoc Rate allowed · 11.4%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 14.4%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Indiana team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Nebraska team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.