Overall team quality
Strong Ohio State advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 6
MarylandatOhio State
Maryland16
Ohio State45
CALLED
SharpTake projected Ohio State at 97%. Ohio State won.
ProjectedOhio State by 33.5
ActualOhio State by 29
Difference4.5 pts
Market spreadOhio State -31.25
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Ohio State -31.25
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Maryland 3%Ohio State 97%
SharpTake projects Ohio State to win.
Ohio StateProjected winner
97%Win probability
Ohio State by 33.5Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Ohio State
Ohio State's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Ohio State. Ohio State also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and recent scoring performance, while Maryland's record from last season pushes the other way.
Down-to-down efficiency
Strong Ohio State advantage
Last season's results
Maryland offset
Recent scoring performance
Ohio State advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Maryland run game
CLEAR EDGEMaryland offenseOhio State defense
Maryland gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams, while Ohio State allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Ohio State.
Rushing Success Rate · 37.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 33.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Maryland staying on schedule
CLEAR EDGEMaryland offenseOhio State defense
Maryland gains enough yardage for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Ohio State allows enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Ohio State.
Offensive Success Rate · 38.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 35.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Maryland disruption vs Ohio State
CLEAR EDGEOhio State disruption allowedMaryland disruption created
Ohio State avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams, while Maryland creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Ohio State.
Havoc Rate allowed · 11.2%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 14.1%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Maryland team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Ohio State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.