Overall team quality
Strong Oregon advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 6
UCLAatOregon
UCLA17
Oregon15
MISSED
SharpTake projected Oregon at 79%. UCLA won.
ProjectedOregon by 13.0
ActualUCLA by 2
Difference15.0 pts
Market spreadOregon -10.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Oregon -10.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
UCLA 21%Oregon 79%
SharpTake projects Oregon to win.
OregonProjected winner
79%Win probability
Oregon by 13.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Oregon
Oregon's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Oregon. Oregon also has the edge in down-to-down efficiency and current season's results, while UCLA's record from last season pushes the other way.
Last season's results
UCLA offset
Down-to-down efficiency
Oregon advantage
Current season's results
Oregon advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Oregon pass game
CLEAR EDGEOregon offenseUCLA defense
Oregon gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while UCLA allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Oregon.
Passing Success Rate · 47.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 47.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
UCLA disruption vs Oregon
CLEAR EDGEOregon disruption allowedUCLA disruption created
Oregon avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams, while UCLA creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Oregon.
Havoc Rate allowed · 10.9%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 12.0%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Oregon staying on schedule
CLEAR EDGEOregon offenseUCLA defense
Oregon gains enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while UCLA allows enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Oregon.
Offensive Success Rate · 47.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 49.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
UCLA team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Oregon team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.