Overall team quality
USC offset
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 6
USCatPenn State
USC31
Penn State23
MISSED
SharpTake projected Penn State at 60%. USC won.
ProjectedPenn State by 4.0
ActualUSC by 8
Difference12.0 pts
Market spreadUSC -1.25
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Penn State +1.25
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
USC 40%Penn State 60%
SharpTake projects Penn State to win.
Penn StateProjected winner
60%Win probability
Penn State by 4.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Penn State
Penn State's record from last season is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Penn State. Penn State also has the edge in current season's results, while USC's overall quality pushes the other way.
Last season's results
Penn State advantage
Current season's results
Penn State advantage
Down-to-down efficiency
USC offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Penn State run game
CLEAR EDGEPenn State offenseUSC defense
Penn State gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while USC allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Penn State.
Rushing Success Rate · 47.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 47.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
USC staying on schedule
EDGEUSC offensePenn State defense
USC gains enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Penn State allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors USC.
Offensive Success Rate · 49.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 40.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Penn State explosive plays
EDGEPenn State offenseUSC defense
Penn State creates big-play value on successful plays less often than most FBS teams, while USC allows big-play value on successful plays less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors USC.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.187Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Worse than most FBS teams
Explosiveness allowed · 1.151Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
USC team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Penn State team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.