Overall team quality
Strong Minnesota advantage
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 6
MinnesotaatPurdue
Minnesota13
Purdue41
MISSED
SharpTake projected Minnesota at 65%. Purdue won.
ProjectedMinnesota by 6.0
ActualPurdue by 28
Difference34.0 pts
Market spreadMinnesota -2.75
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Minnesota -2.75
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Minnesota 65%Purdue 35%
SharpTake projects Minnesota to win.
MinnesotaProjected winner
65%Win probability
Minnesota by 6.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Minnesota
Minnesota's overall quality is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Minnesota. Minnesota also has the edge in recent scoring performance, while Purdue's record from last season pushes the other way.
Last season's results
Purdue offset
Current season's results
Purdue offset
Recent scoring performance
Minnesota advantage
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Minnesota staying on schedule
EDGEMinnesota offensePurdue defense
Minnesota gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Purdue allows enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Minnesota.
Offensive Success Rate · 39.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 47.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Minnesota pass game
EDGEMinnesota offensePurdue defense
Minnesota gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Purdue allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Minnesota.
Passing Success Rate · 40.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 48.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed
Minnesota explosive plays
EDGEMinnesota offensePurdue defense
Minnesota creates big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams, while Purdue allows big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Purdue.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.144Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the weakest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.235Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Minnesota team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Purdue team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.