Overall team quality
Iowa offset
FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 6
IowaatWashington
Iowa41
Washington24
MISSED
SharpTake projected Washington at 53%. Iowa won.
ProjectedWashington by 1.0
ActualIowa by 17
Difference18.0 pts
Market spreadWashington -3
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Iowa +3
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Iowa 47%Washington 53%
SharpTake projects Washington to win.
WashingtonProjected winner
53%Win probability
Washington by 1.0Projected margin
Why SharpTake leans
Why SharpTake leans Washington
Washington's current season's results is the biggest reason SharpTake favors Washington. Iowa's overall quality pushes the other way.
Current season's results
Slight Washington advantage
Current season's scoring performance
Iowa offset
Big-play ability
Iowa offset
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Washington staying on schedule
EDGEWashington offenseIowa defense
Washington gains enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Iowa allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Washington.
Offensive Success Rate · 48.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 38.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Washington run game
EDGEWashington offenseIowa defense
Washington gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Iowa allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Washington.
Rushing Success Rate · 49.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 41.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed
Washington explosive plays
EDGEWashington offenseIowa defense
Washington creates big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle, while Iowa allows big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Iowa.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.247Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Near the FBS middle
Explosiveness allowed · 1.076Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Explore
Go deeper
Team reads
Iowa team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed.→
Washington team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed.→
Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.→
Position rooms
Coverage and limitations
- Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
- Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
- Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.