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Sat, Oct. 17 · 12:00 PM ET · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
Ohio State19
Indiana15
MISSED
SharpTake projected Indiana at 55%. Ohio State won.
ProjectedIndiana by 2.0
ActualOhio State by 4
Difference6.0 pts
Market spreadOhio State -2.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Indiana +2.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Ohio State 45%Indiana 55%
SharpTake projects Indiana to win.
IndianaProjected winner
55%Win probability
Indiana by 2.0Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Indiana pass game
EDGE
Indiana offenseOhio State defense
Indiana gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Ohio State allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Indiana.
Passing Success Rate · 56.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 38.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Indiana creates big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle, while Ohio State allows big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Ohio State.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.222Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Near the FBS middle
Explosiveness allowed · 1.043Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Ohio State disruption vs Indiana
EDGE
Indiana disruption allowedOhio State disruption created
Indiana avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams, while Ohio State creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Indiana.
Havoc Rate allowed · 11.4%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 16.3%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Ohio State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Indiana position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 17, 2026 · 1:32 AM ET