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Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Rutgers 38%Maryland 62%
SharpTake projects Maryland to win.
MarylandProjected winner
62%Win probability
Maryland by 4.5Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Maryland pass game
EDGE
Maryland offenseRutgers defense
Maryland gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Rutgers allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Maryland.
Passing Success Rate · 40.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 47.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Maryland disruption allowedRutgers disruption created
Maryland avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle, while Rutgers creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Maryland.
Havoc Rate allowed · 14.3%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Havoc Rate · 12.4%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Maryland finishing drives
EDGE
Maryland offenseRutgers defense
Maryland scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line at a rate near the FBS middle, while Rutgers allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Maryland.
Points per scoring opportunity · 3.39 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Near the FBS middle
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 4.45 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed
Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.
Rutgers position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Maryland position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 17, 2026 · 1:32 AM ET