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SharpTake projected Michigan at 59%. Michigan won.
ProjectedMichigan by 3.5
ActualMichigan by 3
Difference0.5 pts
Market spreadMichigan -6
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Penn State +6
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Penn State 41%Michigan 59%
SharpTake projects Michigan to win.
MichiganProjected winner
59%Win probability
Michigan by 3.5Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Penn State explosive plays
CLEAR EDGE
Penn State offenseMichigan defense
Penn State creates big-play value on successful plays less often than most FBS teams, while Michigan allows big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Michigan.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.187Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Worse than most FBS teams
Explosiveness allowed · 1.120Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Michigan run game
EDGE
Michigan offensePenn State defense
Michigan gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Penn State allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Michigan.
Rushing Success Rate · 50.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 44.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Michigan disruption allowedPenn State disruption created
Michigan avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams, while Penn State creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Michigan.
Havoc Rate allowed · 12.1%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 15.9%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Penn State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Michigan position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 17, 2026 · 1:32 AM ET