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SharpTake projected Northwestern at 70%. Northwestern won.
ProjectedNorthwestern by 8.0
ActualNorthwestern by 3
Difference5.0 pts
Market spreadNorthwestern -7
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Northwestern -7
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Northwestern 70%Michigan State 30%
SharpTake projects Northwestern to win.
NorthwesternProjected winner
70%Win probability
Northwestern by 8.0Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Michigan State staying on schedule
EDGE
Michigan State offenseNorthwestern defense
Michigan State gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Northwestern allows enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Michigan State.
Offensive Success Rate · 42.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 45.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Northwestern run game
EDGE
Northwestern offenseMichigan State defense
Northwestern gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Michigan State allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Northwestern.
Rushing Success Rate · 45.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 47.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Northwestern creates big-play value on successful plays less often than most FBS teams, while Michigan State allows big-play value on successful plays less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Michigan State.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.163Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Worse than most FBS teams
Explosiveness allowed · 1.185Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Northwestern position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Michigan State position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 17, 2026 · 1:32 AM ET