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Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Nebraska 32%Oregon 68%
SharpTake projects Oregon to win.
OregonProjected winner
68%Win probability
Oregon by 7.0Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Nebraska disruption vs Oregon
CLEAR EDGE
Oregon disruption allowedNebraska disruption created
Oregon avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams, while Nebraska creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Oregon.
Havoc Rate allowed · 10.9%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 14.4%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Havoc allowed vs havoc created
Oregon run game
EDGE
Oregon offenseNebraska defense
Oregon gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Nebraska allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Oregon.
Rushing Success Rate · 48.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 46.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Nebraska creates big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams, while Oregon allows big-play value on successful plays at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Oregon.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.108Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the weakest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.217Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Near the FBS middle
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Nebraska position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Oregon position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 17, 2026 · 1:32 AM ET