SharpTake

FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 7

WashingtonatPurdue

Fri, Oct. 16 · 8:00 PM ET · Ross-Ade Stadium

Washington38
Purdue26
MISSED

SharpTake projected Purdue at 52%. Washington won.

ProjectedPurdue by 1.0
ActualWashington by 12
Difference13.0 pts
Market spreadPurdue -3
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Washington +3

Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised

SharpTake projects Purdue to win.

PurdueProjected winner
52%Win probability
Purdue by 1.0Projected margin

On-field context

Matchup breakdown

These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.

Washington staying on schedule

CLEAR EDGE
Washington offensePurdue defense

Washington gains enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Purdue allows enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Washington.

Offensive Success Rate · 48.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 47.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results

Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed

Washington run game

CLEAR EDGE
Washington offensePurdue defense

Washington gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Purdue allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Washington.

Rushing Success Rate · 49.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 47.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results

Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed

Washington pass game

CLEAR EDGE
Washington offensePurdue defense

Washington gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Purdue allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Washington.

Passing Success Rate · 50.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 48.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results

Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed

Explore

Go deeper

Team reads

Washington team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed. Purdue team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed. Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.

Position rooms

Washington position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Purdue position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 16, 2026 · 1:47 AM ET

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