SharpTake

FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 7

WisconsinatUCLA

Sat, Oct. 17 · 7:30 PM ET · Rose Bowl

Wisconsin7
UCLA17
CALLED

SharpTake projected UCLA at 71%. UCLA won.

ProjectedUCLA by 8.5
ActualUCLA by 10
Difference1.5 pts
Market spreadUCLA -2
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: UCLA -2

Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised

SharpTake projects UCLA to win.

UCLAProjected winner
71%Win probability
UCLA by 8.5Projected margin

On-field context

Matchup breakdown

These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.

Wisconsin explosive plays

CLEAR EDGE
Wisconsin offenseUCLA defense

Wisconsin creates big-play value on successful plays less often than most FBS teams, while UCLA allows big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors UCLA.

Offensive Explosiveness · 1.197Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Worse than most FBS teams
Explosiveness allowed · 1.138Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the strongest FBS results

Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed

UCLA finishing drives

CLEAR EDGE
UCLA offenseWisconsin defense

UCLA scores points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line far less often than most FBS teams, while Wisconsin allows points after possessions cross the opponent's 40-yard line less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Wisconsin.

Points per scoring opportunity · 2.98 pointsFinishing drives measures points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line.Among the weakest FBS results
Points allowed per scoring opportunity · 3.13 pointsFinishing drives measures points allowed per possession that reaches the defense's 40-yard line.Better than most FBS teams

Comparison basis · Points per scoring opportunity, for and allowed

Season aggregates only. How a specific opponent forces field position and drive length is not captured here.

UCLA staying on schedule

EDGE
UCLA offenseWisconsin defense

UCLA gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Wisconsin allows enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors UCLA.

Offensive Success Rate · 41.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 45.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results

Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed

Explore

Go deeper

Team reads

Wisconsin team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed. UCLA team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed. Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.

Position rooms

Wisconsin position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
UCLA position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 17, 2026 · 1:32 AM ET

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