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Sat, Oct. 24 · 3:00 PM ET · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
Oregon10
Illinois21
MISSED
SharpTake projected Oregon at 76%. Illinois won.
ProjectedOregon by 10.5
ActualIllinois by 11
Difference21.5 pts
Market spreadOregon -10
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Oregon -10
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Oregon 76%Illinois 24%
SharpTake projects Oregon to win.
OregonProjected winner
76%Win probability
Oregon by 10.5Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Oregon pass game
CLEAR EDGE
Oregon offenseIllinois defense
Oregon gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Illinois allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Oregon.
Passing Success Rate · 47.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 48.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Oregon gains enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Illinois allows enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Oregon.
Offensive Success Rate · 47.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 45.0%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Illinois disruption vs Oregon
EDGE
Oregon disruption allowedIllinois disruption created
Oregon avoids tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles far more often than most FBS teams, while Illinois creates tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Oregon.
Havoc Rate allowed · 10.9%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Havoc Rate · 15.3%Havoc Rate is the share of plays with a tackle for loss, pass defended, or forced fumble.Near the FBS middle
Oregon position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Illinois position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 24, 2026 · 7:58 AM ET