SharpTake

FINAL Game forecast · REGULAR week 8

IndianaatMichigan

Sat, Oct. 24 · 12:00 PM ET · Michigan Stadium

Indiana13
Michigan6
CALLED

SharpTake projected Indiana at 82%. Indiana won.

ProjectedIndiana by 14.5
ActualIndiana by 7
Difference7.5 pts
Market spreadIndiana -7.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Indiana -7.5

Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised

SharpTake projects Indiana to win.

IndianaProjected winner
82%Win probability
Indiana by 14.5Projected margin

On-field context

Matchup breakdown

These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.

Indiana pass game

CLEAR EDGE
Indiana offenseMichigan defense

Indiana gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Michigan allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Indiana.

Passing Success Rate · 56.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 44.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams

Comparison basis · Passing success rate vs passing success rate allowed

Indiana staying on schedule

EDGE
Indiana offenseMichigan defense

Indiana gains enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Michigan allows enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Indiana.

Offensive Success Rate · 51.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 41.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle

Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed

Indiana run game

EDGE
Indiana offenseMichigan defense

Indiana gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Michigan allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Indiana.

Rushing Success Rate · 48.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 40.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle

Comparison basis · Rushing success rate vs rushing success rate allowed

Explore

Go deeper

Team reads

Indiana team readHow the away team wins and where it is exposed. Michigan team readHow the home team wins and where it is exposed. Full team matchupCompare the teams across every measured matchup concept.

Position rooms

Indiana position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Michigan position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
  • Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
  • Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
  • Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.

Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.

Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 24, 2026 · 7:58 AM ET

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