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Sat, Oct. 24 · 3:30 PM ET · Huntington Bank Stadium
Iowa10
Minnesota13
MISSED
SharpTake projected Iowa at 77%. Minnesota won.
ProjectedIowa by 11.0
ActualMinnesota by 3
Difference14.0 pts
Market spreadIowa -7.5
Vs spreadLOSSSharpTake Pick: Iowa -7.5
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Iowa 77%Minnesota 23%
SharpTake projects Iowa to win.
IowaProjected winner
77%Win probability
Iowa by 11.0Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Minnesota explosive plays
CLEAR EDGE
Minnesota offenseIowa defense
Minnesota creates big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams, while Iowa allows big-play value on successful plays far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Iowa.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.144Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Among the weakest FBS results
Explosiveness allowed · 1.076Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
Run game
NO EDGE
Minnesota offenseIowa defense
Minnesota gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Iowa allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Rushing Success Rate · 40.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 41.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Minnesota gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Iowa allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams. The evidence does not separate the teams enough for an advantage here.
Passing Success Rate · 40.5%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Passing Success Rate allowed · 37.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Iowa position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Minnesota position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 24, 2026 · 7:58 AM ET