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SharpTake projected Northwestern at 88%. Northwestern won.
ProjectedNorthwestern by 18.0
ActualNorthwestern by 28
Difference10.0 pts
Market spreadNorthwestern -15.25
Vs spreadWINSharpTake Pick: Northwestern -15.25
Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
Rutgers 12%Northwestern 88%
SharpTake projects Northwestern to win.
NorthwesternProjected winner
88%Win probability
Northwestern by 18.0Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Rutgers staying on schedule
CLEAR EDGE
Rutgers offenseNorthwestern defense
Rutgers gains enough yardage for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Northwestern allows enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Rutgers.
Offensive Success Rate · 46.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 45.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Northwestern run game
EDGE
Northwestern offenseRutgers defense
Northwestern gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Rutgers allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Northwestern.
Rushing Success Rate · 45.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 47.6%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Rutgers gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams, while Northwestern allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Rutgers.
Passing Success Rate · 47.3%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Better than most FBS teams
Passing Success Rate allowed · 44.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Rutgers position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Northwestern position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 24, 2026 · 7:58 AM ET