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Pregame forecast · published before kickoff and not revised
USC 51%Wisconsin 49%
SharpTake projects USC to win.
USCProjected winner
51%Win probability
USC by 0.5Projected margin
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
USC staying on schedule
CLEAR EDGE
USC offenseWisconsin defense
USC gains enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Wisconsin allows enough yardage for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors USC.
Offensive Success Rate · 49.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 45.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the weakest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
USC pass game
CLEAR EDGE
USC offenseWisconsin defense
USC gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Wisconsin allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance more often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors USC.
Passing Success Rate · 52.8%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 45.2%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Wisconsin creates big-play value on successful plays less often than most FBS teams, while USC allows big-play value on successful plays less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors USC.
Offensive Explosiveness · 1.197Explosiveness measures the value created on successful plays, showing how damaging the big gains are.Worse than most FBS teams
Explosiveness allowed · 1.151Explosiveness allowed measures the value opponents create on their successful plays.Better than most FBS teams
Comparison basis · Explosiveness vs explosiveness allowed
USC position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Wisconsin position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 24, 2026 · 7:58 AM ET