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Sat, Oct. 31 · 3:30 PM ET · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
Minnesota 7%Indiana 93%
SharpTake projects Indiana to win.
IndianaProjected winner
93%Win probability
Indiana by 24.5Projected margin
SharpTakeIndiana by 24.5
Market SpreadIndiana -20.75
SharpTake is 3.75 points higher on Indiana.
On-field context
Matchup breakdown
These matchup factors describe where the teams differ on the field. They are separate from SharpTake's forecast explanation above.
Minnesota run game
CLEAR EDGE
Minnesota offenseIndiana defense
Minnesota gains enough yardage on runs for the down and distance less often than most FBS teams, while Indiana allows enough yardage on runs for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Indiana.
Rushing Success Rate · 40.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Worse than most FBS teams
Rushing Success Rate allowed · 32.1%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Minnesota gains enough yardage for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle, while Indiana allows enough yardage for the down and distance far less often than most FBS teams. That comparison favors Indiana.
Offensive Success Rate · 39.9%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Defensive Success Rate allowed · 34.4%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Comparison basis · Success rate vs success rate allowed
Indiana pass game
EDGE
Indiana offenseMinnesota defense
Indiana gains enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance far more often than most FBS teams, while Minnesota allows enough yardage on pass plays for the down and distance at a rate near the FBS middle. That comparison favors Indiana.
Passing Success Rate · 56.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Among the strongest FBS results
Passing Success Rate allowed · 43.7%Success Rate is the share of plays that gain enough yardage for the down and distance.Near the FBS middle
Minnesota position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.Indiana position roomsWho is on the 2026 roster and what they did in 2025; navigation, not forecast factors.
Coverage and limitations
Forecasts are produced only when both teams meet SharpTake's evidence requirements.
Player availability, injuries, weather, travel, and rest are not included.
Explain factors use completed 2025 team-season evidence. They describe matchup contrasts and are not causal model attribution.
Forecasts are model-based context, not guarantees.
Forecast model · Data cutoff Oct. 28, 2026 · 2:49 AM ET